Could a Massive Earthquake Shake Southwest Michigan? Here’s What Experts Say

Scientists are concerned that an earthquake expected to originate in the Mississippi River could shake several states, including Michigan.

Friday, August 2nd, 2024, Michigan felt a 2.9-magnitude earthquake that originated in nearly the dead center of Lake Michigan. The USGS (United States Geological Survey) predicts much larger earthquakes headed our way.

If we use the data on historical seismicity combined with the new information on the recurrence of large earthquakes, and make the same assumptions that go into the National Seismic Hazard maps, we would estimate a 25-40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquake in the next 50 years.

The USGS goes on to say there is a 7-10% likelihood that the New Madrid Fault could have a 7.5 to 8.0 magnitude earthquake in that same period.  Where is the New Madrid Fault, and does Southwest Michigan need to worry about it?

Scientists are keeping a close eye on the New Madrid Seismic Zone, a fault line that runs along the Mississippi River through states like Missouri and Arkansas. And while that’s hundreds of miles away, history shows it doesn’t have to be close to be felt here.

Why The New Madrid Fault Line Still Freaks Experts Out.

The New Madrid fault isn’t just some quiet crack in the earth; it has a wild history.

The New Madrid Fault is approximately 120 miles long, stretching from Arkansas to Missouri under the Mississippi River.  This fault line has a horrific history.  Between 1811 and 1812, New Madrid experienced three earthquakes that ranged between 8.3 and 8.7.  The aftershocks lasted for months, and the damage was extensive.  Structural damage was found as far away as Ohio, and the quake was felt on the East Coast from the Carolinas to Connecticut.

And yes, this actually happened:  The Mississippi River reportedly flowed backward for 3 months due to the force of the quakes. It also caused major landslides and created temporary waterfalls

Could Kalamazoo actually feel it if the New Madrid fault line wakes up?

Short answer: yes.

Long answer: probably not in a “run for your life” kind of way.

If a major earthquake hits the New Madrid zone, the shaking could travel hundreds of miles, meaning Southwest Michigan would likely feel it.

But here’s the good news.  Most scenarios suggest minimal damage in Michigan.  You’d likely feel shaking, maybe some rattling.  The farther you are from the epicenter, the weaker the impact

There are some extreme, worst-case predictions floating around—like Lake Michigan causing flooding, but those are considered highly unlikely.